Have you ever had those days when every time you should have zigged, you zagged?
I have days when I make five bets and go 1-4. Of course there are other days when it looks more like 4-1, but on the days when there are way more losses than wins I can be tempted to start playing opposites, especially if a couple of losing days turn into a couple of weeks.
In other words, do all of my picks and then bet against everything I liked.
I was following someone on Twitter for a while. He was posting picks for NFL and NCAAF for free, not a pay service of which there are many. Side note – don’t follow free touts on the internet. You get what you pay for. Anyways, his overall record was good so I was curious to see how he would continue to do.
The good thing was, I wasn’t betting his picks. If I am going to win or lose money I want it to be because of what I do, not just blindly following someone else.
He was doing well until suddenly the fortunes turned. He had amassed a huge following and people were tailing him, and I don’t blame them because it seemed he could do no wrong. He was consistently hitting around 58%, which in sports betting is enough to retire to Tahiti and send your bets in while sipping a drink with umbrellas in it.
It’s funny how things go though. As soon as you think you have it all figured out, the inevitable losing streak hits.
You tank and you can’t figure out why.
There is a real psychology to the art of winning. Books have been written on this very subject. I have written about it too, how it seems that in life winners win and losers lose. It comes down to expectations and what you believe in the darkest corners of your subconscious mind.
Losing streaks are very real. It isn’t just in betting though; sometimes it can seem like your entire life has gone into a losing spiral.
You can be rolling along, hitting every green light in life, until suddenly it seems like everything changes and there is nothing but red lights ahead. Whatever stops the flow of your mojo is frustrating and unwelcome and difficult to turn around.
How to get out of a funk? Continue to do what you were doing but back off a bit. Look to see if the rules of the game changed while you weren’t paying attention.
Following trends in sports blindly just doesn’t work in the long run. Once an edge has been identified, the oddsmakers figure it out too and the lines are adjusted accordingly.
In the NFL it used to be easy money to bet against west-coast teams that were traveling east and playing at 1:00 pm. The travel and the time change got them every time. Then the coaches and management started to figure it out and they adjusted the traveling schedule and their preparation.
The books figured it out too and started to make the lines much tighter. A winning angle turned into a loser almost overnight.
If you are betting, then stay on top of what the evidence is telling you. Make adjustments and remember that it is a long game and you aren’t always going to win in the short term.
As for the tout, the last I looked he is still mired in a losing streak. Everything he picks is wrong. If I was cruel, I would start to fade him every time.
But I like to win and lose on my own terms.