Doesn’t it seem that as soon as things become obvious, the rules change? You finally notice a trend, a predictable way of how something is going, and as soon as you do then the opposite begins to happen.
Sometimes it seems that if you just use a contrarian style then you can achieve more success. Start to zig when everyone else is zagging, move when others are standing still. Being a trend-setter is usually more lucrative than following the crowd.
I like to look at betting in that way. As soon as I notice that I am doing the same thing everyone else is doing, I know it’s time for a change.
It doesn’t matter what the choice of betting is, whether it be horses or football or blackjack. The most important thing is to find an edge. To find an edge, you need to see what isn’t obvious.
It is possible to be wildly successful in blackjack if you develop the skill of card-counting. Although with multiple-deck shoes it is more difficult, by grouping cards in your mind into small, medium and face and then having an overall idea of which ones are more likely to come up, you are giving yourself an edge.
Casinos don’t like people who are good at this.
More importantly, card-counting forces you to pay attention. When you are entirely focused on the game, there is something about that fixity of focus that also gives you an edge. Although not quantifiable, it exists.
This applies to betting horses too. People used to ask me at the track if I liked so-and-so horse, or what my best bet of the day was. This question doesn’t make much sense to me.
The best bet is the horse who is going off at odds higher than my perceived estimation of his chances of winning. If I think he has a legitimate 50% chance to win, and his odds are 4-5, it is a terrible bet. At 8-5 he becomes more interesting. At 2-1, he is a prime play.
You can’t be afraid to bet favourites either. With the number of computer players in the game now it is more difficult to get 5-1 on a horse that you think should be 2-1. It happens, but you will be sitting out a lot of dances to get there.
The best play might be to build a horizontal wager with a shorter-priced horse. Get a double or pick three going, and if you have a bankroll that can support it play a pick 5. If your bankroll is more modest, then play more conservatively. Don’t lose the roll chasing a lottery-type win.
In football I have found an edge playing against the big-market teams. There will always be an unreasonable amount of money bet on Dallas, for instance, because people play using their emotions. That is a built-in edge that can be useful.
When asked who my favourite team is I don’t have an answer for that. My team is the one who can cover a spread when I need them to, or consistently hit the over or under in totals. Tampa Bay was a prime example of that in 2019. The offence was effective at scoring points, and the defence was good at giving up points. It was a perfect marriage that rendered multiple over-the-total scores.
Whatever I choose to play, I am positive that doing the same thing I have always done will work for a while, but then the day comes when it doesn’t. Life is like that. To survive, we need to change and adapt.
Bottom line – don’t be afraid to do something less obvious, or something no one else is doing. Success often comes when you find a new way to look at things.