Since becoming more involved in betting sports, and because of my extensive background in horse racing, I am well aware of the power of statistics. There is something almost magical about numbers, about using them to come to conclusions that seem to predict a future outcome.
But how useful are they really?
One useful thing about using stats is that it takes the emotional element out of the decision-making process. To me, that’s probably the most important part of them. When the numbers say that a team or a horse is a good play, and the odds are acceptable, then you make the play. You leave intuition and emotion out of it and calculate with only the cold facts.
In sports betting, line crunchers can make a living by not even looking at which teams are playing, but by looking at the lines the sharp books set and then trying to find an edge in another book’s offering. It’s a tedious way of doing it, but if you are diligent and have many different outs, or places to bet, then it’s possible. It used to be much easier than it is now, of course, but the opportunities will still come up.
I find that far too boring to even consider as something I would do.
In horse racing, the successful computer players look for a 1-2% edge by having the computer examine all of the potential payoffs and then placing bets on every one that offers value above expectations. By covering multiple combinations, a small edge can be squeezed out and then by betting in massive volume, a profit is made.
Again, just not my thing but I understand how it works.
I enjoy the challenge of watching races or games and trying to see what is happening behind the numbers and the stats. I like finding the stories behind the headlines, the small things that can influence the outcome and offer value that others don’t see. I guess I like to be more of a detective than an accountant.
What fascinates me the most is human nature. A player traded away will often have a superhuman effort when returning to face a former team. A change in coaching can take a team out of the basement right to the penthouse. Same players, same abilities, but entirely different results. That shows how much we can learn from surrounding ourselves by successful people who have the right attitude.
Some self-help authors have seized upon the notion that we are a sum of the five people who we spend the most time with. If your friends and coworkers are miserable and lazy and spiteful, unfortunately that is likely the attitude that will become your own even if you try to be more optimistic and positive.
If you want to achieve something different, then you have to do things differently. Sometimes you have to leave the tribe you are with in order to get where you want to go. It’s not always easy, but if you want it badly enough there is always a way.
Reading books and watching videos can be the greatest motivator and can replace the negativity that may surround you now. Figure out what your own story is and then decide what you want the rest of it to look like. Find out what the emotions are that drive you and decide if they are serving in your best interests or not.
The cold hard facts don’t tell the whole story about everything. Human nature will never be reducible to mere numbers, and it wouldn’t be fun if it could.