Stats as a Tool

The race is on, the bet is made. Horses, like people, are difficult to quantify with only numbers

Since becoming more involved in betting sports, and because of my extensive background in horse racing, I am well aware of the power of statistics. There is something almost magical about numbers, about using them to come to conclusions that seem to predict a future outcome.

But how useful are they really?

One useful thing about using stats is that it takes the emotional element out of the decision-making process. To me, that’s probably the most important part of them. When the numbers say that a team or a horse is a good play, and the odds are acceptable, then you make the play. You leave intuition and emotion out of it and calculate with only the cold facts.

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Look for the Hidden, Not the Obvious

Sometimes you need to look a little deeper to see what isn’t obvious

Doesn’t it seem that as soon as things become obvious, the rules change? You finally notice a trend, a predictable way of how something is going, and as soon as you do then the opposite begins to happen.

Sometimes it seems that if you just use a contrarian style then you can achieve more success. Start to zig when everyone else is zagging, move when others are standing still. Being a trend-setter is usually more lucrative than following the crowd.

I like to look at betting in that way. As soon as I notice that I am doing the same thing everyone else is doing, I know it’s time for a change.

It doesn’t matter what the choice of betting is, whether it be horses or football or blackjack. The most important thing is to find an edge. To find an edge, you need to see what isn’t obvious.

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Predicting the Future

Rain, sun, or both? 50-50 chance – take the umbrella and then it won’t matter

If you had the ability to see what was going to happen, would you want it? I think it would be an advantage in so many ways, but at the same time a curse.

For one thing, I don’t want to know when people around me are going to die. I definitely don’t want to know when I am going to be leaving. Knowing other things though would be quite useful.

I would like to know what the weather is going to be like so I can plan accordingly. The weatherman always sounds like he knows what he’s talking about. Then you get rained on when he said it was going to be sunny and you wonder if he is just guessing.

Kind of like handicappers I guess.

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The Racetrack World

A beautiful sight – the crowd enjoying Queen’s Plate at Woodbine Racetrack

I consider myself fortunate. I was six years old when racehorses became a part of my life.

My earliest memories include running around the tarmac at Northlands Park in Edmonton, picking up tickets that bettors had thrown away. My brother and I used to run all over the place, never being told not to and enjoying the freedom to do whatever we wanted.

The backstretch where the horses were stalled was always a source of fascination for me. I loved seeing the horses there, relaxing or eating or flat-out sleeping. It was always comforting to hear them munching away on hay, with the sunlight streaming in through the open doors and the whole place smelling like heaven.

At least to me it smelled like heaven.

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Betting On Me

Seven is a lucky number – one of many for me

It was early, the night’s velvet darkness still keeping the morning light at bay, and I was just waking up. My eyes were barely focusing after a long night of sleep. Excitement suddenly gripped me as I remembered that there was a race the night before, and our horse had a good chance to win. I forced my sleepy eyes to work so I could see if it was there on my night table.

It was. Joy surged through me as I saw the small stack of money sitting beside my radio. Success! Another winning effort and the spoils that came with it. I felt richer than anyone in the world.

I was also six years old. My parents always put $2 across on our horses for me, and I am so thankful for that and what it did to help make me who I ended up becoming.

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New Year, New Beginnings

You don’t see two dollar bills anymore! I like to keep these around as my good luck charm

A new year, a new decade, and new opportunities. Whatever you wish your life to look like in the future, it all begins with an idea to do something now.

An idea followed by a plan and then action are the three steps that can take you wherever you wish to go. One decision in one moment can change the course of your life forever.

I had an idea and now this is the result of that idea. These pages have been a source of inspiration for me and, I hope, for you as well.

Now it’s time for something new. I need to do what I enjoy, and that happens to be betting on things. Not just things, but specifically horses and football. It has been a long process of acceptance to realize that this is what I want to do.

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