Probabilities – Dawn Lupul

January 10, 2020January 9, 2020

How Much Does History Matter?

Games of chance, or games of skill? Play the odds and time will tell

Does the past always repeat itself? I guess if the exact same steps are taken and the same information is used to make decisions, then it probably does to some extent. But there are many outside influences that can’t be controlled and can affect the outcome in a way you weren’t expecting.

Trying to figure out what is going to happen today by using what happened yesterday seems like a reasonable thing to do. But is it really? If it was as easy as analyzing results from the past, then it should be easy to predict what will happen in the future.

But it isn’t. It never is. If it was, then sports betting and playing the stock market and investing in real estate would all be 100% guaranteed money-makers.

January 9, 2020January 9, 2020

Indecision

High tide in Puerto Rico – keep walking or turn back? Depends where you are trying to go

It’s so easy to see things clearly after the fact. Once the outcome is known, the result was never in doubt.

Except it was. There was enough uncertainty beforehand that perhaps you didn’t act in the manner you wish you had. This goes for everything, both betting and life in general.

We make decisions everyday based on information that may be lacking in many ways. It is difficult to always know the entire picture before we have to act. Of course, in hindsight everything makes perfect sense.

January 5, 2020January 3, 2020

Betting On Success

Not exactly my idea of luxury, but if you like pink then it could be for you!

There are so many parallels between betting on horses and sports and the unfolding of life. There are probabilities, the expected odds of something happening or not. There is the law of cause and effect, where what you do has a consequence of some sort.

You do something, there is a result, then you look at it and decide what to do next. That is pretty much life summed up in one sentence.

Betting is all about that. You look at the possibilities, choose one outcome that you believe is the most likely, evaluate the odds and see if they are in line with your expectations, and then act on it. Or maybe you wait for a better opportunity. It is absolutely no different than what we do each day of life.

There is also the law of reciprocity – in other words, you get what you give.

Life is to be lived. It is about plunging into the deep end, learning how to stay afloat and then enjoying the experiences along the way. It isn’t meant to be spent on the sidelines watching others live. It is a full-participation sport that will give back to you what you put into it.

January 4, 2020January 4, 2020

Predicting the Future

Rain, sun, or both? 50-50 chance – take the umbrella and then it won’t matter

If you had the ability to see what was going to happen, would you want it? I think it would be an advantage in so many ways, but at the same time a curse.

For one thing, I don’t want to know when people around me are going to die. I definitely don’t want to know when I am going to be leaving. Knowing other things though would be quite useful.

I would like to know what the weather is going to be like so I can plan accordingly. The weatherman always sounds like he knows what he’s talking about. Then you get rained on when he said it was going to be sunny and you wonder if he is just guessing.

Kind of like handicappers I guess.